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Missing the Best Days in the Market: The Up and Downs of Staying Invested

Insights Blog

Missing the Best Days in the Market: The Up and Downs of Staying Invested

January 22nd, 2025 // Adam Bruderly

Investing in the markets often feels straightforward—buy, hold, and watch your wealth grow over time. But anyone who’s spent even a little time navigating the financial world knows it’s rarely that simple. The temptation to sell when markets dip and the allure of trying to time the perfect entry or exit can be overwhelming. However, history teaches us a crucial lesson: the cost of missing the best days in the market is high, and the value of staying invested cannot be overstated.

Why Timing the Market Is So Tempting (and Dangerous)

Market volatility plays on our emotions. When markets drop, fear takes over. We want to protect what we have. Conversely, when markets surge, the regret of missing out on gains can push us to make impulsive decisions.

Yet, the reality is that even seasoned professionals with access to sophisticated models rarely succeed at perfectly timing the market. Research consistently shows that being out of the market during its best days can significantly erode returns. And here’s the kicker: those best days often occur during periods of heightened volatility, when many investors are sitting on the sidelines.

The Math Behind Missing the Best Days

Consider this: If you had invested $100,000 in the S&P 500 at the start of a 20-year period and simply stayed invested, your portfolio could grow substantially over time. But if you missed just the 10 best days during that period, your returns might drop to less than half of that. Miss the 20 best days, and the gap becomes even more staggering.

As shown in the chart, missing the best days can reduce your annualized return significantly. The data highlights how a disciplined approach—remaining invested through the highs and lows—leads to far better outcomes.

Why It’s So Hard to Stay the Course

If staying invested is the key to long-term success, why is it so difficult? The answer lies in human psychology. We’re wired to avoid loss, often valuing the avoidance of pain more than the prospect of gain. In investing, this can lead to reactive decisions, like pulling out of the market when it feels too risky, even though those moments are often when staying the course is most important. Moreover, the media amplifies these emotions. Headlines scream about market crashes and recessions, stoking fear and making it even harder to focus on the bigger picture.

The Value of Staying Invested

Another powerful illustration of this principle comes from examining market recoveries. For instance, the 2009 market recovery following the financial crisis rewarded those who stayed invested. Missing even the early stages of recovery would have had a profound impact on long-term returns: The chart demonstrates the importance of sticking to your plan during turbulent times. Investors who stayed fully invested saw significantly higher growth compared to those who went to cash and missed key recovery periods.

Long-Term Market Growth

Over the long term, staying invested in equities has consistently outperformed other asset classes. The compounding effect of market growth over decades is undeniable, as shown in this chart:

This illustrates how equities, despite their volatility, deliver superior returns compared to other investments like bonds, gold, or short-term government portfolios. The lesson? Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

Practical Tips for Staying the Course

  1. Have a Plan: A well-thought-out  investment strategy tailored to your goals and risk tolerance can act as a guide during turbulent times.
  2. Focus on the Long Term: Remember that investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Temporary dips are a small price to pay for long-term growth.
  3. Tune Out the Noise: Avoid letting sensational headlines dictate your decisions. Instead, rely on data and your financial plan.
  4. Work with a Financial Advisor: A trusted advisor can provide the perspective and discipline needed to navigate volatile markets.
  5. Reframe Your Mindset: Rather than fearing market downturns, see them as opportunities to invest at lower prices and capture future growth.

The Simple Yet Challenging Path to Wealth

Staying invested sounds simple in theory, but the emotional journey makes it one of the hardest financial disciplines to master. However, the rewards for those who resist the urge to react are potentially immense. By committing to the long term and embracing the ups and downs of the market, you position yourself to achieve your financial goals and build lasting wealth.

In the end, it’s not about avoiding every storm but weathering them with confidence. Because, as history shows, the sun always shines again.

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